The French Connection.

 How interesting to read that the French Economics Minister, Macron, visited London, to encourage French entrepreneurs to return to France. They told him that it was easier to start businesses in the UK than France as it has less bureaucracy. He wanted nothing more than for them to come back to France, as France needs them.

France is often described as "dirigiste". Their government does take a controlling interest in the corporate enterprises in the French econmy. And they do not see the advantages in letting the economy loose and trying to step-back and let people get on with their economic lives.

They have also been instrumental in setting the agenda over the last 60 years for the development of EU. And look at that!

It is reading articles like this one, that really focuses the mind on the Referendum. It is definately not about  the UK going its own way. It is about providing a real catalyst for change in Europe. 

George Osborne recently said leaving the UK would be significant shock to the UK economy. I believe it would also be a significant shock to the EU, that would necessitate change. Reform would have to follow.

Today, Yuncker was saying that perhaps the EU has been getting too involved in issues that could be best resolved by National governments. I wonder if the speech only got air-time in the UK.

He is the co-author of the Five Presidents Report that describes the road map to further integration where full EU democracy could only come after complete integration into a Federal Europe. So I doubt very much he really believes what he says about doing less. 

Perhaps a Leave vote would really be the catalylist for change. David Cameron's position has been watered down from his Bruges speech days where he advoctaed that the EU needed to change fundamentally. The potential changes he has negotiated do not adequately reflect his original stance. They have been watered down in ways that reflect what is wrong with the EU, their real desire for ever closer political union. They do not want the type of changes that we see are needed. 

But then perhaps it is not going to be that catalyst..!

....when has a referendum ever prevented the EU from continuing on its path? So perhaps I should not delude myself...!

After this referendum, after the French and Germans get their National Elections out of the way, the agenda of the EU will revert to further Treaty change to allow them to get on with further political and fiscal integration to get the Euro to function properly as a currency. 

Those treaty changes would include the deal made by David Cameron, and it remains to be seen whether they would be watered down further.

Whether we vote to stay in or leave, we will always be trying minmise the impact of EU / Euro on the UK.

Does it really matter which way we all vote.....?

Has David Cameron's deal really only been a damage limitiation exercise? To allow us to continue in an economic club and prevent the further political union that is required to make the Euro work. Perhaps we should vote to remain on this occassion, and if they try to renege on the deal at the next treaty change, leave then.

Who knows.... Back soon ......

.....the undecided voter.

A Tonic to the Politics of Fear

Well my worst fears, highlighted in one  my earliest blogs, have now materialised with the media reporting on how both sides of the debate are resorting to scare tactics.

So it is always quite pleasing,when I am reading in the press, to come across references to other sources of information, that may deliver some real insight and considered thought.

A letter from a reader in The Times mentioned this document below as a good read. It has a good summary and more detail as required on specific topics.

It is a document published by the UK Parliament.

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7213#fullreport

Happy reading

Back soon .....

.....the undecided voter

Pro-EU Points of view

I have to be honest and say that although I do try and read widely and look at this Referendum from a pro-EU stance, I find that I either get switched off from continuing to read something, or when I do manage to finish, I just look at the article and see it as very poor quality and bland.

The following site is a case in point. It is written by an Amercian professor of EU Politics. On this occassion, I thought I would engage in some dialogue with him. I was left quite unimpressed, to be honest.

http://johnmccormick.eu/2016/03/the-uk-referendum-on-the-eu-eight-tips-for-winning-the-case-to-stay/

My first ever political meeting!

I went to my first ever political meeting, on the 5th October. Firsts are quite rare, these days!

I found the meeting really interesting, and although I am posting a blog quite a long time after, seeing the video of it again, now reminds me of just how thought provoking it was at the time. Oh! And the quality of it is much better than that of the Charles Kennedy Memorial Debate in my earlier blog!

http://www.brugesgroup.com/eu/life-after-the-european-union.htm?xp=speeches

There were two memorable points of the speeches that left their impression on me, for helping make that decision on whether to remain or leave the EU.

The economic arguments for leaving the EU are described in the video by Jim Mellor a very wealthy successful investor, by the sounds of it. He basically said that the main reason to leave was because in 5, 10, or maybe 15 years, France and Italy will go bust from unsustainable levels of debt to private investors, circa 130% of national GDP. Like Greece, they are benefiting from cheap interest rates via the Euro and are not addressing their huge government debts, through lack of political will. It is the size of these two countries debts that make the problem far more significant than the Greek troubles. The size of debts are two big for Germany to fund and Britian would be bound to be sucked into supporting them as one of the biggest Members of the EU. In essence he wants us to leave the EU, and then go back into a reformed EU.

The second speaker was a Conservative MEP, Daniel Hannan. It is quite interesting hearing the arguments against the EU rather than reading them. Basically he was reiterating that the EU has a lack of democracy leading to bad decision-making that does not look after the needs of the population of Europe. Everything is more focused on creation of a Federal Europe, than addressing the needs of the people. He argued that we joined Europe when the UK was the sick man of Europe. "Would we join, now?" Was the thrust of his argument. 

And finally, another notable moment was the reminder by the Chair of the meeting, that the Maastricht Bill was only passed by a  majority of 3 votes in the UK Parliament. How different things might have been since then? On reflection, things would probably not have been a lot as there would have been a later vote, with a later Labour Government who would have gone for another vote. A bit like they did with signing up to the Social Chapter at a later date.

Back soon.....

......the undecided voter

Have the Pro EU supporters resorted to Negative Campaigning already?

William Hague was the one who campaigned to keep the Pound when others wanted to join the Euro.

He is currently saying we should stay in the EU, otherwise it will cause the UK to disintegrate. He does not mention that the long term aim is to do away with the nation state in favour of a supra national Federal State.

And just recently, David Cameron was saying the refugee camps would transfer to Kent from Calais if we left the EU. Yet, the bilateral agreement we have with France for British Border Controls checks to take place on French ground has nothing to do with our membership of EU.

I do think the decision on whether to remain or leave the EU needs to be made on positive grounds. Negative campaigning will be a huge turn off for me when the Referendum campaigning starts in earnest. There needs to positive reasons for staying in the EU.

Alot of the Pro-EU camp believe it will be better to stay in a reformed EU. These reforms do not seem that fundametal.

However, I also think the Leave camp should make a positive case for leaving, and must state its plans for a new relationship with Europe as part of this, in quite some detail.

In the Scottish Referendum, Alex Salmond could not articulate any detail on the significant issues such as which currency he wanted to use. He seemed to want to leave the Uk, keep its currency but stay in theEU , and not join the euro.

Debt Sustainability

My last post, touched on whether countries can afford the debt they have incurred. At what point does it all become unsustainable.

For the UK, we are struggling to get the deficit down to zero. George Osborne now reckons it will be 2020 before we get the deficit down to zero. Only then we will be able to start paying the national debt down. The debt since 2010 has more than doubled to £1.5 trillion. What will it be in 2020?

Politics has prevented the government from cutting in-work benefits, to help reduce the deficit.

A country's debt becomes unsustainable when no-one wants to continue lending to them, and they cannot pay the loan back. And it is the politics that makes this difficult, with a reluctance put up with higher taxes, and a reluctance to give up social benefits, such as healthcare or inwork benefits etc.

The UK debt currently represents 88% of its GDP, its national output.

From my last post, I recall Jim Mellor saying France and Italy were currently running at 130-140% of their respective GDPs. Separately, I read somewhere that France's national debt was currentlly 99% of GDP

Whatever the level, the higher the percentage, the more difficult it becomes to get it under control, because it becomes political impossible to make the decisions.

France certainly seems incapable to develop the poltical will to rectify these problems.

Some people consider that no country ever lowers the debt after 80% of gdp. It just keeps increasing after that.

The web-site gives more information.

http://people.stern.nyu.edu/nroubini/papers/debtsustainability.pdf

Back soon.....

......the undecided voter!

INside OUTside

The various campaign groups are still forming and developing their approach and pitch to the electorate.

In many respects, the IN campaign is held back by the fact that David Cameron is still negotiating our new relation with the EU; the reformed EU.

According to the UK laws on holding Referendums it is the Electoral Commission who will decide on one group from each camp that will receive the official funding from them. So I suspect there will be alot of mergers between now and the referendum.

For now though, I have listed below the various names and relevant websites with some brief information on them. The content shown in the websites will I am sure change and develop.

I hope this helps the reader to easily develop a broad understanding of how to answer the question being posed in the Referendum.

Errors and Omissions Excluded! I am happy to be advised of other sites etc. and will update this post as I discover other groups.

THE IN CAMP

I have included here, people or organisations that are advocating reform of the EU, as well those simply advocating to stay in.

The In-Campaign

http://www.strongerin.co.uk/

This was formally launched on October 2015

The front man in the former Marks & Spencer boss, Stuart Rose.

Executive Director Will Straw, who is the son ex-labour minister Jack Straw.

The Yes to Europe Campaign

Www.britishinfluence.org

Director - Peter Wilding

Director of Research - Nick Kent

They want to say YES to a reformed Europe.

Centre for European Reform

Www.cer.org.uk

Business for Britain

Www.businessforbritain.org

This organisation is lobbying for renegotiated terms for Britain's EU membership. They are expressing concern over "ever closer union" with too much delegation of decision making.

Labour for Britain

This is a group of Labour Politicians that are keen to play an active role the renogiation of Britain's relationship with the European Union and to campaign for a reformed EU.

http://forbritain.org/labour/

THE OUT CAMP

Leave.eu

The Leave.EU campaign says they are a grass routs campaign that has no political affiliation.

Www.leave.eu

It was formerly called the kNOw camp based on the theme that if you were "in the know" on the facts about the EU you would definitely decide to vote No!

Conservatives For Britian

http://conservativesforbritain.org/

Headed by Steve Baker MP is a group of Westminster MPs who are wanting to leave the EU irrespective of David Cameron's negotiations, but not all members of this group have made their membership public. I suppose that is because some of them are currently government ministers. 

Ukip

Well known advocates of an exit, and some would argue that they were instrumental in getting us to the point  where we are actually having a referendum.

Nigel Farage is the party leader, but I suspect he is not the front runner to lead the official no  campaign.

The Bruges Group

An independent all-party think tank set in 1989 and named after Margaret Thatchers Bruge's Speech that inspired alot of "outers

thebrugesgroup.com

Better Off Outer

An EU campaign group

Www.betterofout.net

Labour Euro Safeguards Campaign

This is an interesting site because it is run by members of the Labour party who question the merits of EU Membership

http://www.lesc.info/